The contract price of West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) for delivery in March 2013 at the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex), Friday (25/1) at 16:47 pm, up 0.34% to U.S. $ 96.28 per barrel compared to the price the day before . Last week, WTI oil price rose by 0.1%.
Brent oil for March 2013 delivery on ICE Futures also rose 0.26% to 113.58 per barrel. During the week, oil prices for European benchmark contract was up 1.51%.
Release some recent data that makes oil prices rise, for example, U.S. weekly jobless claims fell to 330,000 people, from the previous 335,000 people. This figure is inversely predicted an increase of 20,000 people jobless claims. Meanwhile, European manufacturing index rose to 47.5 in January, from 46.1 the previous month.
Nizar Hilmy, SoeGee Futures analyst said this positive data releases indicate that economic conditions are much more stable than in 2012, mainly from two areas that had been tended problematic. Europe, although still in a recession because of the debt crisis, but there are signs of stability. While the U.S. showed improvement, judging from the number of unemployed decreased. "The release of data showing positive results raises oil demand growing optimism for the industry," said Nizar.
According to Nizar, strengthening oil prices is also supported from the geopolitical situation in Libya, which has not yet recovered. Fears of attacks on Libyan oil assets pushing the tighter security at the local oil facilities. Moreover, Libya's border with Algeria, which last week hit by a terrorist attack.
Libya is one of the largest oil producer, with an average oil production of 1.5 million barrels per day. Last month, Libya's oil production reached 1.54 million barrels per day.
Ariston Tjendra, an analyst at Monex Investindo Futures added, expectations of rising oil demand is likely to continue during the coming week. However, the market is still waiting for the release of data on new home sales in the U.S. are predicted to increase from 377 000 to 387 000 units in January. "The positive economic data, then the impact will be good for energy and industrial commodities," said Ariston.
Ariston warned that economic contraction is still a threat to oil, especially from the Euro zone. Areas that are still trying to cope with the debt crisis is not 100% stable. Market participants are likely to be alert to information about policies that will be applied in the Euro zone.
Supply up
Release of data showing positive results is able to reduce the negative sentiment from the U.S. oil reserves increased information. Citing a report from the U.S. Energy Department, Bloomberg said the increase in U.S. oil reserves by 2.8 million barrels to 363.1 million barrels. According to the median estimate of 10 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, the supply will increase again by 2.2 million barrels.
Technically, Nizar see a bullish signal oil prices. Indicator moving average (MA) is still above the MA 50 and MA 100. Indicator moving average convergence divergence (MACD) is in the positive area, at the level of 1.63, indicating a strong bullish signal.
Indicator relative strength index (RSI) was at 73, above the overbought 70. Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator shows at level 77, with the movement tend to be flat.
Bloomberg survey of 36 analysts expect price increases next week. Half of the total analysts predict oil prices will rise to 1 February. Eleven people, or 31% predicted oil prices down, and seven predicting little change in prices.
The next week, Nizar predicts oil prices will rise in the range of U.S. $ 94-US $ 98 per barrel. Meanwhile, Ariston predicts the strengthening of oil in the range of U.S. $ 94.30 to U.S. $ 97.70 per barrel.
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